Future Thought
FUTURE THOUGHT
CYCLE WORLD ROUNDUP
Elsewhere in this issue the past 20 years of motorcycling has been rehashed in a number of ways, which, besides being fun to read, should tell us something about where we're headed. Predictions are always fun, and rumors are even better, though they're easier to come up with because you can always blame somebody else when they aren't true. The problem with crystal-ball gazing is that you can't predict what new technology will be developed, so you look around and see what today's fads are and predict what of those will be the future.
What's next? Well, looking at the 1982 models being offered by the big motorcy le companies, it appears the different brands are heading off in slightly unusual directions. Honda is introducing liquidcooled V-Four shaft drive 750s, a turbo 500, and is continuing most of the same models it has had. Yamaha is introducing a turbo, a 550 liquid-cooled V-Twin, is reducing the number of big bikes, eliminating a number of old models and replacing some bikes that have become dated. Suzuki and Kawasaki haven’t announced any new engine configurations, have no Vengines, have no liquid-cooled street bikes, have fiercely competitive sporting models and are introducing more sporting street bikes with wilder styling this year.
No one is introducing a bigger motorcycle. The displacement wars appear to have stopped at 1 lOOcc for most of the motorcycles, all the big four having 1 lOOcc machines and a couple around 1300cc. So far, no one is introducing an air-cooled model to replace a liquid-cooled model. And no one is making a twin-shock model to replace a single-shock model.
If there is a question mark in the immediate future, it is turbocharging. Two of the fastest, most exciting models being introduced this year are turbocharged, both with stylish full fairings and a number of technical changes to make the turbos work. Turbo kits for existing motorcycles have been uniformly awful. The turbos have been too big, the carburetion imprecise and the hardware not well adapted. No one doubts that Honda and Yamaha can solve problems and make a turbo work, but we’re not ready to predict the future will be filled with turbocharged motorcycles. The turbos we’ve ridden, including the Honda turbo, haven’t worked as well for normal use as more conventional motorcycles with big displacement motors, even though the turbos weigh as much as much larger motorcycles.
Up to this point in motorcycle history, new motorcycles have been demonstrably superior to existing motorcycles. Problems have been eliminated, performance has been increased and reliability has been enhanced. We are offered an enormous collection of good, serviceable motorcycles. No longer is it possible to buy a new motorcycle that will seize a valve or spin a bearing in a year of normal use. Reliability is no longer a frontier. There are no more bikes that can’t be ridden cross country.
Today’s frontier has shifted to fashion. That’s why the V-Fours and Special styling and turbos. Today’s styling trends are going in new directions. Suzuki’s Katana and Yamaha’s Vision have shapes that haven’t been on bikes before.
For the last 20 years the history of Japanese motorcycles has been the displacement growth, from 50 to 90 to 100 to 125 to 150, to 250 to 350 to 500 to 750 to 1000 to 1100. Now, nearly 80 years since Harley met Davidson, the biggest practical bikes weigh about as much and have engines about as big as they’ve always had. From this slice of history we can predict that bikes of the future will range from big bikes of about 600 lb. and somewhere from 70 to 80 cu. in. to medium sized bikes somewhere under 500 lb. with about 45 cu. in. of displacement, down to small bikes of around 200 lb. and 50cc.
Fully enclosed motorcycles, or motorcycles with car-like enclosures and bodywork are nothing new. Every 20 years or so someone (usually English) encloses as much of the motorcycle as possible, declaring that this is now suitable transportation for businessmen or women and the model fades into oblivion as nobody buys it. Touring fairings have been a success and sport fairings will remain on some bikes, but the two-wheeled sedan shows no signs of a long life.
Three-wheeled vehicles, however, will remain much as they always have, owned by fanatical enthusiasts who are sure that sidecars and tricycles are the wave of the future. And all the same reasons that have kept them from prominence the last half century will continue to do so.
If anything major will shape the motorcycles of the future, it might be the forces of evil and darkness known as Government. The threat of noise standards is a continuing burden that encourages motorcycle designers to add liquid-cooling and multiple cylinders in order to be prepared for laws that may or may not arrive. Emission standards might still lead to bikes with catalytic converters and evaporative cannisters. Coping with rules could become the challenge of future designs, just as the demands for more performance and more reliability were the demands of the, past.
Continuing the present trends, wo might find more alternate engine configurations, more V-Fours and Triples, maybe a square-Four or a V-Six. The near-term trends to liquid-cooling and shaft drivé’' and single shock suspensions could be followed by novel front suspensions. Always there are the benefits of reduced weight, a, trend that is always present and exploited every few years.
Fuel injection works, but it’s expensive and difficult to repair and it doesn’t make’ more power than carburetors, so we wouldn’t expect to see many bikes with it! There may be some new carburetors available, things like the downdraft carbs on the Yamaha Vision, or single carbs on manifolds for a bike that lends itself to this application.
Mostly, motorcycles will continue to be much as they have been: Fun to ride, satis* fying to look at, and easy to work on. There is no ultimate. Never will be. Bui the power outputs may level off not too far from now.
And what if on our next anniversary all^ of this proves to be wrong? We want to be the first ones to say, We told us so.
