What Price, Progress?
WHAT PRICE, PROGRESS?
IGNITION
TDC
SENSIBILITY IN THIS TIME OF EXPANDED CAPABILITIES
KEVIN CAMERON
The classic idea of progress has generally been that every day and in every way, things are getting better and better. Many point to Moore's Law, which has observed that approximately every two years, the number of features that can be placed on a computer chip doubles. This has equipped many of us with mobile phones whose computers are more powerful by far than anything used in the Apollo program to fly humans to the moon and back. Technology according to one view, is irresistibly drawing us all together into a global community of right-thinkers.
On the other hand, technology has also become so expensive that we can barely afford it. Makers of aircraft and their engines cannot take the risk of developing new products by themselves because a single mistake could wipe out even the biggest firm. Pratt & Whitney, MTU, Rolls-Royce, GE and others—all traditionally fierce competitors—must therefore cautiously form consortia in which financial responsibility is diluted. One company becomes a specialist in burners, another does the fan, someone else tackles the invisible complexity of the high-pressure turbine disc.
One of the movie super-giants recently commented that another big failure by Hollywood could permanently cut ties to sources of finance—too much risk! Fashion and preference move across the land like wind and storm, making the box office impossible to predict. Yet the model for success is to “bet the farm,” spending $200 million to produce a “blockbuster.”
Then there’s the so-called “Law of Economic Disarmament.” In 1939, a Curtiss P-40 fighter plane cost $40,000, but by the end of WWII, the increase in fighter engine power, weight, armament and capability had driven the price to $70,00-90,000. The coming of jets quickly pushed the price over a million as the U.S., Soviets, Britain, France and others prepared for an unknowable future. Today, Congress has to ponder the wisdom of spending $300 million for a single advanced fighter. The Law of Economic Disarmament predicts that soon, it will require the combined economic power of the U.S., Russia, China and India to develop and build a single super-advanced aircraft, with which they will then take turns defending themselves from each other.
Now consider motorbike racing. In 1965, any likely lad could stroll into a Yamaha dealer and order a 250 TDi-B then go club or national racing. It was $1147! Today, it costs more than that if the asphalt softens under your Panigale’s sidestand. Seized up in your heat race? If you were cozy with the dealer, a fresh TDi-B cylinder was $42 and a piston $3. We went off to the races with a steamer trunk filled with all the parts we might need. We were ordinary working stiffs with a few extra bucks, and we spent them going racing. By 1980, the water-cooled descendant of that B-Model was $4000, but we didn’t worry—inflation, right? The next year, the new H model was between $6000 and $7000, but shucks, look at what you were getting! The previous bikes had been based on the production RD350 Twin, but the new machine shared no parts with production. It was pure racer, with “Powervalve” variable-exhaust-port-height technology, just like on Kenny Roberts’ 500s. We were jazzed.
We blinked a couple of times and a new TZ was more than 20 grand. The more they cost, the fewer buyers there were to share the cost. Up went the price. Yes, these were high-tech machines, carrying the beginnings of the electronic revolution in the form of computer-controlled mapped ignition timing and Powervalve control.
As 250CC racing shrank, riders thronged into the near-stock Supersport classes. This made good sense, as streetbikes had become raceable without the need for a machine shop, fabricating skills and race-team knowhow that went with early Superbikes.
When 250s were dropped from AMA national racing, they were closing in on $30,000. When they were dropped from -> international GP racing, teams were paying the Euro equivalent of $1 million for two bikes and tech support.
BY THE NUMBERS
4 NUMBER OF METHODS I'VE USED OVER THE YEARS TO SEND IN CONTRIBUTIONS TO CYCLE AND CYCLE WORLD (U.S. MAIL, FEDEX, MODEM, EMAIL. I'M TOO YOUNG FOR THE PONY EXPRESS.)
42 LENGTH IN MM OFTHE FATIGUE CRACK IN MY KITCHEN 5PATULA~ IT WAS TIMM WHEN I FIRST REPORTED IT IN A TOG ABOUT FATIGUE FAILURE
What drives this rapid rise in costs? We now know how to do far more than we can afford to do. Beryllium is the ideal material for brake calipers because it combines high rigidity (essential for a firm lever) with extremely light weight. Yet even in Formula l, where the top team spends $300 million a year, Beryllium calipers are banned.
Yes, carbon-fiber chassis can be light and extremely stiff, yet the GP teams (and production lines) stay with metal. Why? When it’s time to change stiffness or engine location, welder/fabricators can whip up a new metal chassis in a day or two, but carbon-fiber requires an expensive new mold, hand layup by skilled technicians (no boat-builder’s chopper guns in this industry) and controlled cure by heat in a fancy autoclave sized for one part at a time—not for 10,000.
Uh, yeah, but how about the miracle of volume, Moore’s Law and all that? Titanium used to be high-tech but now streetbikes have titanium valves. Isn’t Beryllium next? Don’t hold your breath. Expectations were the same for advanced lithiumion batteries, but when you look at their curve of price-vs.-time, it all but leveled-off around 2002-03. High-tech hits the market and only the high-end buyer can afford it.
We hear the drum roll preparing us for autonomous (driverless) autos, which will notionally whisk us along in 100 percent safety thanks to triplexed electronics and sensor suites. Will they also have duplicated control systems like those on aircraft? Multiple generators to ensure uninterrupted electrical power? (A 747 carries five generators.) And who will pay for this big up-step in sophistication?
Lots of people have all they can manage just making their used junkers pass vehicle inspection. Must we postulate more “scheduled breakthroughs” that will magically, affordably put all this technology in the showroom at realistic average-family-of-four prices?
I love the expanded capabilities brought to sportbikes by the application of MotoGP electronics, but I also know that MotoGP bikes cost millions each—even with a swelling rulebook aimed at cutting costs. Therefore, I am delighted to see today’s sensible trend in the motorcycle marketplace toward simplicity, smaller engines and affordable pricing. Although motorcycles can be enhanced by electronics, titanium fasteners and carbon fenders, the basic appeal of the motorcycle is that it becomes a part of the rider. It gives the rider the same thrill of longer legs and multiplied abilities that the first horseback rider felt thousands of years ago. That thrill comes in all sizes, from 50CC on up.
IN 1965, ANY LIKELY LAD COULD STROLL INTO A YAMAHA DEALER AND ORDER A 250TD1-B THEN GO CLUB OR NATIONAL RACING. IT WAS $1147!
