The Thrill of Forecasting
The Thrill of Forecasting
ROUNDUP
A LITTLE OVER A YEAR AGO, THE Cycle World staff predicted the kinds of motorcycles that would be available in 1985. We batted a little better than .500 on those predictions, which isn’t bad, but we were sure we could improve on that mark for the 1986 model year. So we got in touch with our underground spy network, third-degreed the industry’s movers and shakers, sifted through all the information we were able to accumulate, and went out on a limb once again. And our score this time? Well, we once again hit just a little over .500—which proves that we at least are consistent, if somewhat less than perfect.
This has, however, been a rather unusual and confusing model-year simply because the new bikes have been introduced in a most piecemeal fashion over quite a few months. So perhaps a recapitulation of where our predictions were right and wrong just might help clear up some loose ends.
With Yamaha, we were on-target for the most part. Our only real errors were our predictions that there would be a 900-to-1 OOOcc FZ750, and that the V-Max would be endowed with the FZ750’s fivevalve-per-cylinder system, making the brute even more brutish. Neither happened. We did make one other mistake, albeit a small one, when we predicted there would be a 700cc VMax in Yamaha's lineup. Well, there is, sort of—the Fazer. But it’s a V-Max only in basic styling and direction rather than in engine configuration. Otherwise, we were pretty much right-on with Yamahas. As predicted, the FZ750 is now legal in California; the FJ 1 100 is now a 1200; there is finally an FZ600; the SRX-6 is the “600cc single-cylinder sportbike” we predicted; and we called the dirt bikes perfectly.
We split evenly on the ’86 Kawasakis. We were a little off-target when we said that the big Ninja and the Eliminator would both grow to
1 OOOcc. Only the Ninja got bigger. We struck-out for the second year in a row by predicting the coming of a 750 Ninja, and a larger-displacement Vulcan hasn’t come to pass either, but the 600 Eliminator was a good call.
Our Suzuki predictions were also about evenly split. We hit the GSXR1 100 right on the nose, as well as the redesigned motocrossers. But we missed completely on the Openclass RM, the big Intruder and the GS 1 150 drag bike.
So, you see, we did pretty well with all of the Big Four manufacturers—except one. Most of our wrong predictions involved Hondas. Of course, Honda could still surprise us with more new models this spring, but we're fairly certain where we blew it with Big Red. We were sure, for instance, that Honda would have a stronger, more powerful version of the V65 Magna, one that would compete head-to-head with the V-Max in terms of acceleration and brute power. But the '86 V65 Magna is virtually unchanged. Also, we predicted a bigger Nighthawk, but not only did that bike fail to materialize, Honda even stopped making the 650 Nighthawk. And we were out to lunch in forecasting an inline-Four 750 hotrod sportbike, and an automatictransmissioned Gold Wing with a radial rear tire.
Our streak of failed predictions even extended to Honda’s dirt bikes. We forecast—not for the first time, either—that Honda would have a super-serious, 500cc four-stroke dirtkiller. But as with the predictions we made for this bike in previous years, the magical, mythical thumper never showed up. Also, the two-stroke en-
duro bike we said was coming isn’t. And finally. Honda stopped making the XL/XR350R series, which caught us totally by surprise.
In our predictions for '86 models from Europe, we did nicely. We missed on BMW’s R80 Paris-to-Dakar Replica. Cagiva’s full-250cc motocrosser and KTM’s liquidcooled 500cc four-stroke Single. But all three are for-real models that could see light of day in the very near future.
More important for motorcycle buyers than our hits and misses, however, are the surprises the manufacturers gave us. for each of them introduced some models we hadn't anticipated. By far the most exciting was the Concours, Kawasaki’s sport-
touring bike. Based on the Ninja 1000, this bike could significantly alter the way many Americans approach motorcycle touring. Kawasaki also surprised with the Voyager XII, a 1200cc “economy-class” touring rig. Other surprises included the Suzuki Savage, the redesigned Honda XR250R, and Yamaha’s 600cc Radian, the lastest embodiment of the Universal Japanese Motorcycle.
All in all, then, we didn’t do too badly. Besides, we don’t want newmodel announcements to be too predictable lest they become boring. But if the current crop of bikes is any indication, this year will be anything but that.
And now, for next year . . ..
Pardon our Latin
No sooner did our January issue reach its first readers than we heard about Suzuki's unique translation of Latin into English—and our gullibility in believing it. Our article on the FalcoRustyco repeated Suzuki’s claim that the proper translation of that name was “white falcon.” It isn’t. While “Falco” certainly is Latin for “falcon,” Rustyco is slightly fractured Latin for a word that means “rustic” or “from the country.” And. according to one of our Latin-speaking friends (and. as
you will see in the Letters section on pg. 10. a few of our readers), the word actually is “rustic,” which strongly implies “unfinished,” as in rustic or unfinished furniture. Hmm . . . perhaps someone at Suzuki is hinting that FalcoRustyco development isn’t quite as far along as was indicated at the Tokyo Motor Show.
Another source (not directly connected with Suzuki) tells us that there are several development projects underway at Suzuki: one for center-hub steering, another for an hydraulic transmission, one on inno-
vative suspensions, and yet another on new control systems, and that all these projects w^ere unified in one machine to create the FalcoRustyco. These programs aren't all progressing at exactly the same rate, however, and the Falco is more a representation of where Suzuki would like to be rather than a true development prototype. But in any case, some of the technology the FalcoRustyco showcases wiíl be seen on production machines in the very near future. But probably not all at once.
